Cross-Market Fusion

Available now

CMF-2

Dual-stream lag reader: QK-norm attention, FiLM from time-to-expiry, multi-scale tokens, and a Brier + book-utility objective. Trained on real 15-minute Binance windows plus a lagged CLOB. Hacking phase lives in the lab.

Overview

Lag reader for 15-minute binaries

Fast tape is Binance USDT-M. Slow tape is the Polymarket CLOB. Three heads run every second: a Black–Scholes cash-or-nothing prior, the fusion transformer, and a lag tilt. A trade fires only when two heads agree, or when yes+no asks sum under a dollar.

Parameters50.5M
Width384 / 8 / 7+2
Streams2 × 64
Heads3 + arb

Performance

Measured on the same book as LACUNA.

Held-out simulator, share-based PnL after paying the bid/ask. Real futures paths for 80% of episodes (45 days, BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP). Not live Polymarket PnL.

+1.01mean PnL vs oracle +1.72 (64 held-out)
2.27Sharpe after paying the bid/ask
89.2%P(resolve UP) on the same book

Install

Run locally.

First run builds the C++ engine. Weights are SafeTensors; architecture is checkpoints/model.json.

$ uv sync
$ uv run cmf fetch-data --days 45
$ uv run cmf train
$ uv run cmf desk --size 5

Paper is default. Live CLOB V2 requires CMF_LIVE=1, a key, and an explicit arm. Collateral is pUSD, not USDT. Model weights: checkpoints/fusion.safetensors.

Hacking lab Notation book Execution desk Source